East Bay Real Estate Market Update - January 2026 Outlook

As we enter 2026, the East Bay real estate market is doing something it hasn’t done in years: it’s starting to look and feel like a normal housing market again.

After two years of rate shock and a full year of recalibration in 2025, buyers and sellers are no longer frozen. Instead, we’re seeing something healthier, measured demand, rising inventory, and more rational pricing.

December showed us where we’ve been.

January shows us where we’re headed.

Here’s what today’s data says about the East Bay housing market as we begin 2026.

1. Mortgage Rates Are No Longer Driving Panic

Rates are still the #1 factor in affordability, but the psychology has changed.

Throughout late 2025 and into January 2026, mortgage rates have largely stayed in the mid-6% range, with small week-to-week swings. Those swings still influence activity, but they no longer create paralysis.

What’s different now?

Buyers are no longer waiting for “the perfect rate.” They’re buying when the home and payment make sense together.

That shift is critical for 2026.

Instead of seeing huge spikes and crashes in buyer activity, we are now seeing steady, dependable demand, especially for:

• Well-located single-family homes
• Properties with ADUs or flexible floor plans
• Walkable neighborhoods in Oakland, Berkeley, Alameda, Lamorinda, and Pleasant Hill

2. Inventory Is Finally Opening Up

One of the biggest changes between January 2025 and January 2026 is simple: There are more homes to choose from.

The “rate lock-in” effect is still real, but it’s weakening. More homeowners have decided that moving forward with life matters more than keeping a 3% mortgage.

As of late 2025:

• Alameda County averaged just under 2 months of supply
• Contra Costa County hovered closer to 2–2.5 months

That is still a seller’s market, but it is far more balanced than the extreme shortage we saw in 2022–2024.

Condos are the clear outlier.

They have significantly more inventory, longer days on market, and softer pricing, creating the best buyer opportunity segment in the East Bay heading into 2026.

3. Prices Enter 2026 on Solid Footing

Despite higher rates, prices did not collapse in 2025, they quietly rose.

By October 2025:

• Alameda County median home price: ~$1.115M
• Year-over-year growth: ~1.4%

Contra Costa County saw more variation by neighborhood, but high-demand areas like Lamorinda, Danville, and Walnut Creek stabilized and even gained late in the year.

What matters for January 2026?

We are no longer in a fragile market.

Prices have:

• Found their post-pandemic floor
• Absorbed higher interest rates
• Adjusted to buyer affordability

That gives us a much stronger platform for 2026.

4. Buyers Are More Serious Than They’ve Been in Years

One of the most important trends emerging late in 2025, and carrying into January 2026, is buyer decisiveness.

In 2024, buyers hesitated. In early 2025, they tested the waters. By late 2025, they started acting.

When the right home appears:

• Offers are written quickly
• Multiple offers still happen for turnkey homes
• Homes priced right move

This is especially true for:

• Renovated single-family homes
• Homes with outdoor space
• Properties close to BART, schools, and shopping

Condos, by contrast, remain slower, creating negotiation opportunities for buyers willing to look there.

5. What the January 2026 Market Is Really Telling Us

The data points to one clear message: The East Bay market has reset, not broken.

We now have:

• More listings
• More realistic sellers
• Buyers who understand payments
• Prices that reflect today’s financing environment

That combination produces stable markets, not boom-and-bust cycles.

This is exactly what long-term homeowners and serious buyers want.

6. What East Bay Sellers Should Know Right Now

Early 2026 offers something sellers haven’t had in years: Opportunity without chaos.

You still have:

• Strong buyer demand for well-presented homes
• Limited competition compared to spring
• Buyers who are ready to move, not just browsing

But the rules have changed.

Homes that sell fastest and for the most money in 2026 will be:

• Priced strategically
• Professionally presented
• Inspected and prepared
• Properly marketed online

The days of “list it and hope” are gone.

7. What East Bay Buyers Can Expect in 2026

Buyers finally have leverage again, especially in:

• Condos
• Townhomes
• Homes that need light cosmetic work

Expect:

• More choices
• More negotiation
• Fewer emotional bidding wars
• Better opportunities during rate dips

Single-family homes in prime neighborhoods will remain competitive, but buyers who are prepared will be rewarded.

Final Thoughts

January 2026 marks the beginning of a more predictable, more balanced East Bay real estate market.

The panic phase is over. The freeze is gone. The recalibration is complete.

This is now a market built on fundamentals, not fear.

If you’re thinking about selling, buying, or just understanding what your home is worth in today’s environment, this is the right moment to get clarity and plan strategically.